While discussions over energy sanctions mean that fossil fuels have earned a central place in the discussion around the conflict in Ukraine, access to and use of energy is deeply intertwined with war and military operations. Conflicts directly and indirectly produce greenhouse gas emissions, for example, through attacks on oil fields, forests or cropland, damages to buildings, or deliveries of aid to civilians. Although overall emissions are generally assumed to sink in war-torn countries owing to reduced economic activity and development, the impact may be more nuanced, as damaged infrastructure needs to be cleared and rebuilt following conflicts (https://go.nature.com/3Mp98uf). Furthermore, in addition to active conflict, broader military operations have a large carbon footprint. These emissions are substantial and represent a non-negligible contribution to anthropogenic climate change.
The most visible non-conflict military emissions are caused by direct energy use to maintain buildings and at military bases, as well as for transport, particularly aircraft. Less visible emissions, however, that occur throughout the supply chain may dwarf these, and account for the bulk of the climate impact associated with the military in the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States (https://go.nature.com/3NquIP3 and https://go.nature.com/39zfRDi). Although military emissions are not well accounted for, recent work by Professor Neta Crawford at Boston University has indicated the potential scope. Her work has shown that the US military emits more greenhouse gases than many countries, including Portugal and Sweden (https://go.nature.com/38BJjbp). The lack of clear emissions accounting is intentional, as Crawford explains, “There’s a reason that we don’t know much about military emissions — we weren’t meant to. The US worked very diligently to get military greenhouse gases exempted from the Kyoto Protocol: the counting rules do not require reporting of military bunker fuels (fuels that are offshore and in the Navy, vessels or aircraft), and multilateral or UN sanctioned operations emissions are omitted. That is a significant omission of emissions in any one year, 40–80% of what the military’s operational emissions are.”
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